COVID-19 The first auction week has ended in the turmoil. There were some big movements that I could see from the results, so please give a summary.

First of all, the polarization of the vintage Rolex is clear. The money is concentrated on the iconic and good condition. This time, specifically, it was Solid Gold Newman and 6263 Panda. Even on the last day Christie's, the great result was that the 6239 YG Champagne PN was 663K CHF (= Japanese Yen 75.6 million). Considering that the market price of champagne was 350-400K until a while ago, this was a surge of more than 160%. Similarly, 6241 YG black PN=JPS exceeds 1 million. In other words, it can be said that the dealers are proof that they will still grow even if they issue this amount, as for the good individual model that can be called an icon. However, even for pandas, the two Christie's had poor prices on the dial, and the cases and hands had been replaced, resulting in a low price (though it was still 330-350K). Nowadays, it is less likely that it will be overvalued, and it is safe to say that the excessive vintage bubble has calmed down. However, I think that Daytona's popularity will not decline.

 

ROLEX 6239 18K PN: 663,000CHF (= Japanese Yen 75.6 million yen) It is a solid PN with a paper box and a solid condition and originality, but it has a very high reputation of 663K CHF. In the future, not only the model but also the condition and originality will be further examined.

 

ROLEX 6241 PN JPS: 1,040,000 CHF (= Japanese Yen 119.4 million yen) This is also evaluated for its originality, marking the highest amount in JPS history. Although not as good as Lemon Pole, it set the impression as a symbol of the Vintage Rolex.

 

The new trend of "modern sports"

And a new trend is "new modern sports". To be specific, it is Patek's Nautilus, Aqua Note. Per AP Royal Oak (mostly perpetual and extra-thin), some models of Vacheron. Here are a few watches that were operating at a market price a little higher than the list price until a few years ago. To put it concretely, the putty is a rare model of the first Nautilus Jumbo 3700 WG and PT, and a derivative model of the current Nautilus 5711 and Aquanaut and its double name and limited model. AP is a perpetual model with a focus on stainless steel, ceramics, and gold, and its limited model. Of course, these watches were historically popular and powerful, but around here, prices have risen with a sense of speed that could not be thought of before. The detonator was the recent 40th anniversary Nautilus 5976/1G soaring. This phenomenon, in which the model that was launched only a few years ago showed a price increase of over $200,000, would have had a huge impact on dealers and collectors around the world. Since these watches have a new manufacturing year, they are in good condition, there is no doubt about authenticity, and therefore the sense of "high liquidity of cash exchange" that any store can buy with confidence is a major positive factor, and investment funds Was concentrated.

 

PATEK 5976/1G: 487,500CHF (= Japanese Yen 55.77 million) In 2017, anyone would want to buy a Nautilus if they heard that the clock priced at $96,390, which was limited to 1,300 in 2017, was $500,000 in just three years. It was more obvious that the influence had spread to the normal Nautilus than watching the fire. However, there are still some doubts as to whether the price of 487K CHF really sells in stores. There are as many as 1,300 pieces, and most of them are still considered to be in good condition (or unused) as a full set, so there may be a price adjustment to around 300-350K.

 

AUDEMARS PIGUET 26606ST: Stainless steel green dial perpetual sold in 2019 limited to 50 pieces in the Hong Kong market. In 2018, the List Price was about JPY 7.8 million in Japanese currency, but in just two years it was tripled to 181,250 CHF (= JPY 21 million). Since AP's Royal Oak Perpetual production is very small, it is speculated that normal stainless steel and ceramic models will continue to be in this premier state in the future. The reason why AP's perpetual is a little interesting is that even for normal models, ceramics are limited to directly managed boutiques and the number of arrivals is extremely small, while the Japanese limited model is mainly sold at YOSHIDA, etc. It's interesting.

 

AUDEMARS PIGUET 152070R: RG model of extra-thin 30 produced in Japan only in 2020. The domestic list price was 7.04 million yen, but at this Christie's, it won for HK$1.5 million (= Japanese currency 20.6 million yen). The model just delivered this year has marked a little less than 300% of the list price.

 

Destructive power called "perpetual sports"

Also, the fact that AP's Royal Oak Perpetual is strong is probably due to the fact that it is a sports model even though it has a perpetual (= perpetual calendar). For example, Patek's Perpetual is a model with a classic design that is mostly dressy. But now is the era when only sports models can be sold. Perhaps the fact that the perpetual that can add value is “installed in sports models” is extremely large. So Patek rushed to launch the Nautilus 5740 with a perpetual calendar. Of course, the 5740 was a great success, but it is still one model and there is no variation. There are stainless steel, titanium, ceramics, WG/RG in the case of Royal Oak Perpetual of AP and AP, and the limited model also changes the dial and issues more and more. There is no doubt that the secret of Audemar's major breakthroughs in the last few years lies in this "perpetual sport." However, the popularity of royal oak is concentrated only on 3-needle extra-thin and perpetual, and the majority of the other models also have price breakage models, which may be a future issue. Nautilus and Aquanaut are almost all premieres.

 

AUDEMARS PIGUET 26579CE.OO.1225CE.01: Ceramic perpetual released in 2017 (domestic list price at that time was 9.3 million yen) At the PHILLIPS auction in 2019, it was already sold for 131,250 CHF (= Japanese yen 15 million yen). The result is 150% in one year of delivery. It still runs around 150K. It was also talked about that Vergil custom-used the white of this model.

 

Circumstances peculiar to the current Rolex

The position of the current model of ROLEX is subtle when it comes to this. ROLEX's strength and premier level can be said to be invincible if you speak only in the range where the list price is 2 million yen or less. This is because most sport models, including Daytona, have a premier even if such a large number of models are supplied (the production volume is far higher than that of Patek or AP). But what if the list price is 5 million yen or more for the current model? When it comes to the price range around that time, there is a tendency for the mechanical added value of watches to be required, such as perpetual calendars. While Patek and AP were polishing their perpetual calendars and tourbillons, ROLEX, for better or worse, turned away from it and continued to make simple watches. To be clear, Rolex watches continued to sell even without such added value. Under such circumstances, it can be said that no one is asking ROLEX for a perpetual calendar now (although it is a bit confusing because ROLEX arbitrarily calls self-winding perpetual). In that case, ROLEX has no choice but to make the case material YG or platinum or set jewelry to make a high-priced sports model. Under these circumstances, jewelery sports models are currently attracting attention due to the market price of ROLEX. Specifically, it is a model called the Daytona's rainbow that has soared recently and the GMT SARU. These models are also known as "one-shot products" and are said to be finished when a certain number of products are manufactured in a certain period. Since the list price is also high, the profit margin when the price rises is large, and there are circumstances in which it is easy for investment funds to come in.

 

ROLEX 116595RBOW: A popular rainbow that is said to have been produced in 2018 for only one shot. The case is RG. The List Price in North America was 96,900usd (= Japanese yen 10.3 million yen), but at the time of PHILLIPS in November 2018 shortly after delivery, it marked 243,750 CHF (= Japanese yen 28 million yen). Proved the strength of the one-shot thing. It seems that it is still operating at a price of around 300K.

 

ROLEX GMT 116759 SARU: 125,000CHF (= Japanese Yen 14.43 million) This model used to have a domestic price of 9.27 million yen, which was below the market price. However, following this trend, it has risen sharply. Regarding this SARU GMT, RG's 126755 is the smallest and most valuable, but it has come up to this point even in the WG case where it is said that there are relatively many.

 

ROLEX SUBMARINER 116659 SABR: A rare model of sapphire bezel for the WG secretly released at Basel in 2018. The list price in Switzerland seems to be 85,200 CHF, but the number of products produced was very small, so I think there were few people who could buy it in Japan. The feature is that the sapphire of light color is set only for the part of 0-15 minutes of the bezel. When it came out to PHILLIPS once in 2019, it was 93,750CHF, a price increase of about 1 million yen, but now it is soaring and approaching 120,000CHF. The number of people who wear these jewelery-based models in a flashy manner is limited, but after all, the number of ROLEX is extremely small, so it seems that the price will rise in the end after all.

 

In this way, Vintage ROLEX will be the top-level art piece in the future, and the current system will be Patek and AP's modern sports system. And it seems that high prices will continue mainly for rare models of ROLEX. Overall, every country is investing in physical goods due to the increase in the amount of banknotes due to economic measures, and it seems that watches and art are doing well, and this trend may continue for a while.